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The coming days: The week ahead
21 03 2010 Italian regional polls will show if Silvio Berlusconi's popularity is waning • THE prime minister of Italy, Silvio Berlusconi, will be able to assess the damage that a string of scandals has meted out to his government when Italians go to the polls for two days of voting in regional elections starting on Sunday March 28th. Elections are set to take place in 13 of Italy’s 20 regions. Eleven regions are held by the centre-left opposition. Mr Berlusconi, hoping to capitalise on a wave of sympathy after an attack by a mentally unstable man in December, had hoped his People of Freedom (PdL) movement might oust up to five centrist and left-wing governors. But its campaign is in chaos—and the government’s ratings are plunging. • FOUR employees of Rio Tinto, a huge Anglo-Australian mining company, go on trial in China on Monday March 22nd on charges of bribery and industrial espionage in connection with negotiations over the price of iron ore. The accused, three Chinese and one Australian, were arrested last year shortly after Rio had spurned a big investment from Chinalco, a Chinese state-backed metals firm, infuriating the Chinese authorities. That led to speculation that the two events were linked while also dealing a blow to relations between China and Australia. But now relations seem to be improving, at least between Rio and Chinalco. The two companies are have announced a big iron-ore joint venture in Africa. ...

This week's top stories [19 March 2010]
20 03 2010 Our top articles ranked by reader popularity.

China and Rio Tinto: Let bygones be bygones?
20 03 2010 A big African deal signals a partial thaw in Rio Tinto's relations with China IN ONE respect Rio Tinto’s relationship with China is clear. That country accounted for a quarter of the mining giant’s revenues in 2009, mainly because of China’s voracious appetite for iron ore. In other respects their relationship is harder to fathom. China was said to be furious last year when Rio first accepted and then spurned its offer to make a $19.5 billion investment in the Anglo-Australian firm. Four Rio employees were subsequently arrested in China for alleged bribery and commercial spying, and this week a date was set for their trial. But on March 19th, just three days before the courts were to begin hearing the cases, Rio announced it had signed a huge joint venture in Africa with none other than Chinalco, the Chinese state-backed metals firm which it had wooed and then jilted last year. If the deal, to develop a huge iron-ore mine at Simandou in Guinea, suggests a warming in relations between Rio and the Chinese authorities, the signals from the continuing judicial proceedings against Rio’s four employees imply quite the opposite. The arrests of the four men—three are Chinese and one, Stern Hu, is an Australian of Chinese descent—were related to the annual negotiations that set the price China’s steelmakers must pay for iron ore from the world’s three big suppliers: Rio, BHP Billiton and Vale. It was widely assumed outside China that the arrests were motivated by the Chinese authorities’ pique at the way Rio had treated Chinalco. ...

American health-care reform: Presenting the bill
19 03 2010 The stage is set for crucial vote on America’s health-care reform bill IT’S official, or as official as these things get. The health-care package destined for a vote in America’s House of Representatives on Sunday will cost $940 billion over the next ten years. Though the Congressional Budget Office score (as the estimate is known), along with the bill's final details, seems to clear the air on what the House will vote on, the package and the process remain complicated. The House is facing a two-part vote to pass the Senate bill and also tweaks through a process called “reconciliation”. The former may be done through a rule that Republicans are saying is unconstitutional (though they have used it themselves). Procedural trickery or not, everyone in the House will cast a vote on the Senate bill plus reconciliation. Whether it passes or not is far more important than quibbles about the House rules. The CBO also reckon that the health-care package, through savings and new revenue, will cut the total deficit over those years by $138 billion against a baseline scenario. After that, the savings get even bigger, totalling (a much more speculative) $1.2 trillion by 2029, according to some Democrats. But the sums are questionable. The CBO process has been so thoroughly gamed that the true figures could be quite different. The Republicans claim that it will cost far more and totally reject the idea that it will cut the deficit by such a sum over the second decade. ...

Bluefin tuna: Eaten away
18 03 2010 A ban on the trade in bluefin tuna is rejected IT WAS a moment of some drama when delegates assembled in Doha came to vote on a ban in the trade in bluefin tuna on March 18th. The previous evening many representatives of the 175 member nations of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) had been at a reception at the Japanese embassy. Prominent on the menu was bluefin tuna sushi. On the agenda the next day at the CITES meeting was a proposal to list the bluefin tuna as sufficiently endangered that it would qualify for a complete ban in the trade of the species (The Economist supports such a ban). The complex proposal called for further discussion of the bluefin tuna’s plight. Europe, the United States, Monaco and Norway were hoping to move to an adjournment, which would have allowed a proper investigation of the issues over the weekend. Kevern Cochrane, the representative from the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), agreed. He also acknowledged that the official FAO panel had decided that the species met the scientific criteria for listing as a sufficiently endangered species qualifying for a trade ban--the bluefin tuna population has dropped below 15% of its maximum historical level. ...

American-Israeli relations: Where did all the love go?
18 03 2010 Barack Obama has lost patience with Israel. But neither side dares risk a break-up IT HAS been like a lovers’ tiff without the love—quickly tamped down but with none of the kissing and making up, and no soothing of the underlying rage. As Palestinian violence flared in Jerusalem, Barack Obama’s secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, said through gritted teeth on March 16th that Israel and America enjoyed “a close, unshakable bond”. On the same day Michael Oren, Israel’s ambassador to the United States, claimed he had been “flagrantly misquoted” in a widely reported leak that he had called the quarrel the worst crisis between the allies for 35 years. It is nonetheless plain that relations between Israel and the Obama administration are indeed in crisis. The spark was last week’s approval by Israel’s interior ministry of 1,600 new homes in Ramat Shlomo, a Jewish suburb in East (Palestinian) Jerusalem. This coincided not only with a visit by Vice-President Joe Biden but also with the eve of the “proximity talks” America had at last persuaded Mahmoud Abbas to enter with Binyamin (“Bibi”) Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister. Mr Biden is known for his affection towards Israel but took the announcement as a gratuitous insult. So did Mrs Clinton, who on March 12th berated Mr Netanyahu for three-quarters of an hour on the phone. She reportedly told Mr Biden to “condemn” the announcement rather than merely “express concern”. ...

Israel and America: Building tensions
18 03 2010 Relations between America and Israel reach a low point After a raucous public slanging match, America and Israel are attempting to heal the worst rift between the countries in years. The row erupted during Joe Biden’s visit to Jerusalem last week after the Israeli government approved plans to build 1,600 new homes in a Jewish suburb located in East Jerusalem. America’s vice-president, sent to shore up relations and reassure Israel over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, took this as a gross and gratuitous insult both personally and to his boss, Barack Obama. Hillary Clinton, America’s secretary of state, berated Mr Netanyahu on the phone and went on television to inform the world what she had done. The next day tensions rose higher after Israel’s ambassador to Washington was reported to have said that the crisis was the worst between the two countries in 35 years. He later claimed that he was misquoted. On March 16th Mrs Clinton, now trying to fight the flames, said that America had “an absolute commitment to Israel's security. We have a close, unshakeable bond.” ...

France's regional elections: First round knock-down
17 03 2010 Nicolas Sarkozy's party takes a battering in France's regional elections HE MAY have steeled himself for a poor result in the first round of French regional elections, held on Sunday March 14th. But the outcome for France’s president, Nicolas Sarkozy, must nonetheless have felt crushing. Polls had suggested that his ruling UMP party would be neck-and-neck at this point with the opposition Socialists. Instead, the Socialists bagged fully 30%, with the UMP trailing at 26%. At the second round vote next Sunday, Mr Sarkozy can now hope at best simply to hold on to Alsace and Corsica, the only two regions out of 22 in France which the UMP governs. At worst, he might even lose both. In a poll marked by the lowest turnout since France’s regions were created in 1986, Mr Sarkozy’s party did manage to come out top in several places, such as Champagne-Ardennes, Ile-de-France, Provence-Alpes-Cote d’Azur (PACA) and Rhone-Alpes. But the two-round voting system allows any party with at least 10% of the poll to go forward to a run-off. This is likely to help the Socialists more than it will the UMP. Their friends, Europe Ecologie, the rising stars of the French left, secured a handy 13%. ...

Demonstrations in Thailand: Red tide
15 03 2010 Protestors against the Thai government take to the streets again FOUR years of upheaval have set a high bar for street protests in Bangkok. But the demonstration that took place on Sunday March 14th was among the more impressive shows of strength in Thailand. Some 100,000 red-shirted protesters stood under a scorching sun to hear speaker after speaker denounce the current prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, and the ruling elite that installed him. They called for Mr Abhisit to resign and hold fresh elections. On Monday Mr Abhisit rejected their calls from the army barracks where he was holed up, fearful for his security. The main speech at the red-shirt rally was delivered through a video link by Thaksin Shinawatra, the twice-elected and now fugitive former prime minister. His refusal to go quietly since the army ousted him in 2006 has helped to push Thailand to the brink. The coup paved the way for the courts to order the seizure of $1.4 billion of Mr Thaksin’s fortune, which prompted his red-shirted supporters to call the present round of protests. Even before the court announced the seizure in February the red shirts had spent months preparing this massive operation in the rural north and north-east, where Mr Thaksin is still hailed as a hero. In his speech, he urged the army not to harm the people and denied that he had been expelled from Dubai, his adopted home. ...

A postmortem on Lehman Brothers: Oh, brother
14 03 2010 Shining a harsh light on Lehman’s bankruptcy IT SOUNDS distinctly unpromising. A nine-volume, 2,200-page report by a court-appointed examiner into the causes of Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy, published on Thursday March 11th, has a table of contents that lasts for 38 pages. Its most exciting finding relates to an off-balance-sheet accounting gimmick. But the work of Anton Valukas, the chairman of Jenner & Block, a law firm, is crisp, clear and explosive. Mr Valukas and his team took more than a year to research their report. They collected more than 5m documents and reviewed an estimated 34m pages of information. Looking at Lehman’s IT systems was a particular challenge. The firm had a rat’s nest of more than 2,600 systems and applications at the time it went bust; Mr Valukas boiled that down to the 96 most relevant ones, some of which are now operated by Barclays (the buyer of Lehman’s American arm after the holding company failed). He also conducted more than 250 informal interviews, many of them with Lehman’s directors and most senior executives. ...

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